NSR got from $25.16 to $38.27 in 3 years time
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Posted 377 days ago on 4/14/16
NSR will go UP
$38.27 on 4/14/16
$33.30 (32.56% from time of market call)
As of 4/14/2016 my #1 Margin of Safety Value Company Pick is NeuStar, Inc. (NSR) which trades on the NYSE. At a market cap of $1.33 billion, it is a small cap company. It's in the technology sector, the diversified communication services industry and is a US company. The P/E (TTM) is 7.93, the P/B is 1.83. The CAGR on the YOY earnings for the past 6 years is 21.47% and that CAGR has an exponential R2 of 0.9585. Sales growth over the past 5 years is 15.10%, ROE is 26.00%, ROA is 9.30%, debt to equity is 1.51, the LT debt to equity is 1.33. There are no pending lawsuits, the stock is not overbought from an RSI standpoint. Although I normally would like to see it, there are no insiders currently buying the stock and there are no dividends currently being paid.
The important thing now is to look at the margin of safety calculation as provided in the book: How to Pick Stocks like Warren Buffett by Timothy Vick (c) 2000. The discount to margin of safety has to be over 50%. In this case it is 56.09% so it makes it but not by a huge amount.
Given that this company currently meets all criteria, with a current price of $25.16 on 4/14/2016 and an earnings growth margin of safety that gives a safe bet of 15% a year earnings growth for the next few years, I would expect NSR to be trading at an adjusted price of $38.27 in 3 years' time on 4/14/2019, and $50.61 in 5 years' time on 4/14/2021.